Will Finland and Sweden Join NATO Now?
Anna Wieslander and Christopher Skaluba
Introduction:
A historic shift is taking place in Finland. For the first time, most Finns want to join NATO. Across the Baltic Sea, Swedes are becoming more favorable towards membership as well. Sparked by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this might lead to a major foreign-policy shift for the militarily non-aligned Nordic states. But it is not easy to take out insurance when the house is already on fire.
As many as 53 percent of Finns are now in favor of joining NATO, according to polling conducted from February 23-25 (the Russian invasion began on February 24). That’s a dramatic change: In 2017, the same poll showed only 19 percent of Finns wanting to join NATO, and the figure had remained rather stable over time. Polls in favor of joining NATO were up in Sweden as well, with 41 percent supportive in a poll released February 25, compared to 37 percent in January. Public endorsement for membership in Sweden has hovered around 35 percent since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Clearly, Russia’s unprovoked war is pushing the two countries closer to NATO membership than ever before. Moscow´s recent, aggressive threats that joining NATO would bring “military and political consequences” upon Finland and Sweden seem to have had the opposite effect on the public. Rather than hiding in the ditches, Finns and Swedes are turning to the Alliance for security.
During the current crisis, both Finland and Sweden have repeatedly emphasized their sovereign right to choose their own national security strategy. Still, while Finnish and Swedish policies toward European Union membership and close partnerships with NATO might appear identical, underneath the surface are differences that might affect developments ahead.
On Tuesday, members of the Finnish parliament gathered to discuss the option of NATO membership, which is an explicit part of Finland’s national security strategy. Although only two out of ten parties in the parliament have been openly in favor of joining the Alliance, several parties are seeming to shift their position given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
For Finland, the shadow of history is always present. An 833 mile-long border with Russia means that Finland knows it can never take its sovereignty for granted. In his New Year’s speech, President Sauli Niinistö emphasized Finland’s sovereign right to choose its national security strategy, including the option to join NATO. He then quoted Henry Kissinger: “Whenever avoidance of war has been the primary objective of a group of powers, the international system has been at the mercy of its most ruthless member.”
You can read the full article on the Atlantic Council’s website.
Related Publications
-
Not Drawing a Parallel. Ukraine and Taiwan: An Indian Perspective
Russia’s war against Ukraine has not only had economic, diplomatic, and geopolitical repercussions, but also exaggerated the fear of accelerated conflicts in the Indo-Pacific, a region with several unresolved conflicts […]
-
Trade, Connectivity and Supply Chains in EU-India Relations
In the decade and a half since 2007 when the EU and India first started their FTA negotiations, the world economic order has undergone a sea change. During that period, […]
-
Sweden Joins NATO: Implications for the Indo-Pacific
On March 7, almost two years after it first submitted its application and a year after Finland joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Sweden officially became part of NATO’s […]
-
The Political Split at the Heart of Taiwan’s Struggle against Foreign Disinformation
Taiwan’s struggle against foreign disinformation and concerns about China’s impact on its 2024 election has received much international attention recently. This issue brief examines the domestic and international politics behind […]
-
What I heard in Munich: Europe gets a brutal awakening- Anna Wieslander
The recipe of the day at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) was to strengthen “the European pillar” in NATO, a concept that has been floated for many years but with […]